Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 11.426861 13.402163 15.568520 18.114223 21.016918 24.216495 28.003014
2025-01-05 8.295055 10.823430 13.853826 17.726926 22.516125 28.212507 35.466050
2025-01-12 6.526970 9.308596 12.895345 17.800506 24.266312 32.422645 43.402096
2025-01-19 5.288065 8.152776 12.087982 17.788527 25.715138 36.209501 50.987122
2025-01-26 4.676055 7.704656 12.093347 18.762523 28.451067 41.789579 61.260894
2025-02-02 4.142769 7.257004 11.995364 19.513206 30.868463 47.048686 71.421134
2025-02-09 3.737556 6.926358 11.998767 20.365369 33.448813 52.665774 82.417789
2025-02-16 3.225495 6.328439 11.489867 20.338386 34.655759 56.316054 90.752514
2025-02-23 2.698627 5.611938 10.681884 19.715509 34.834214 58.379346 96.791241
2025-03-02 2.240855 4.939017 9.849488 18.936056 34.649392 59.811829 101.885931
2025-03-09 1.970827 4.575831 9.508794 18.945005 35.734168 63.273270 110.303749
2025-03-16 1.748772 4.269824 9.229234 19.020084 36.913913 66.932424 119.213664
2025-03-23 1.543346 3.970332 8.935771 19.059133 38.069698 70.690203 128.628364
2025-03-30 1.295073 3.531048 8.308087 18.395790 37.904333 72.201984 134.408947
2025-04-06 1.143642 3.285045 8.039553 18.395262 38.942447 75.834294 143.965768
2025-04-13 1.009733 3.054860 7.771433 18.360238 39.899442 79.365029 153.523100
2025-04-20 0.967519 3.048739 7.992650 19.354406 42.911465 86.747492 170.208554
2025-04-27 0.912191 2.997752 8.104575 20.123541 45.529606 93.549177 186.190276
2025-05-04 0.867522 2.967608 8.260041 20.998244 48.416251 100.996680 203.687127
2025-05-11 0.774703 2.782350 8.020333 20.970328 49.450504 105.014741 215.111137
2025-05-18 0.662001 2.513093 7.535351 20.330461 49.150860 106.456680 221.821708
2025-05-25 0.557622 2.243764 7.008628 19.529708 48.431396 107.019549 226.877980
2025-06-01 0.500745 2.114570 6.830289 19.538897 49.460083 111.065170 238.730249